Stocks rose on Thursday as investors tried to navigate concerns about the banking sector and looked forward to the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
One of the main data reports the Fed will be looking at is the February inflation numbers tomorrow. Analysts expect growth in spending and consumption to slow in the period, which happened before the March banking unrest dampened sentiment further.
Futures traders are divided on the Fed’s next move. About half of them bet on a quarter-point rate hike, while the other half think the Fed will pause when it next meets in May.
By then, most of the S&P 500 stock earnings reports will be out, as investors listen to CEOs to see if their outlook for the year has changed any of them with the Fed likely nearing the end of its rate hike.
Here are three things that could affect the markets tomorrow:
- Personal consumption expenditures price index
The Fed’s preferred inflation reading is the Personal Consumption Spending Index, which is expected at (12:30 GMT – 15:30 KSA). Analysts expect core personal consumption expenditures, which excludes energy and food prices, to rise 0.4% from the previous month and 4.7% for the year through February. - Expenditure and income
Another set of numbers focuses on spending and income, also due at 8:30 ET. Personal income is expected to increase by 0.2% for the month, and personal spending is expected to increase by 0.3%. Both will be at a slower pace than the previous month. - Michigan sentiment index
The latest University of Michigan Consumer Confidence reading is due at 10:00 ET. Analysts expect the reading for March to be 63.2, which is a slight decrease from the previous reading.
markets today
A number of members of the Federal Reserve spoke, and the most important statements were as follows:
The most important statements of Thomas Parkin:
Not everyone should think that every banking fall means a repeat of Lehman Brothers
Parkin supports a rate hike of 25 basis points at the next meeting
It is too early to determine the size of the impact resulting from the stresses of defaulting on the banking system, whether on the level of credit or inflation
The Fed should be very quick in assessing the magnitude of the effects of the banking crisis on inflation
The fight against inflation is going to take a long time and the only way to bring down inflation is to raise rates again
Collins’ most important remarks:
Recent data indicates that the economy is doing better than expected
The banking crisis raised the risk of future expectations being wrong, but he said that existing inflation expectations indicate the Fed’s confidence in its ability to contain inflation
Before the banking crisis, the Fed’s visions were heading towards raising interest rates to higher levels than the current one, as it revealed the existence of tendencies to raise interest rates until the September meeting before the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
It is difficult for inflation to fall without the unemployment rate rising, but it is not necessary to fall into a recession in order to achieve this goal
Commodities and stocks today
Gold prices rose today, recording spot transactions of $1,980 an ounce, an increase of 0.80%. While futures transactions recorded $1,997 an ounce, at a rate of 0.68%.
Gold’s rise comes in light of the decline in the US dollar index, which recorded today 101.855, a decline of 0.43%, in light of conflicting visions about the future of interest, especially after the US data that was issued today.
US indices rose by the end of the day in light of the return of risk appetite.